We believe that lower commodity prices portend weaker prospects for Rwanda?s export-oriented mining sector and we now expect current account deficits to be, on average, 3.5% of GDP wider than we forecast in our most recent publication in September 2015. In our view, a gradual shift in donor financing from grants to loans could also put pressure on Rwanda?s external and fiscal indicators. However, at an estimated 30% of GDP as of end-2015, net general government debt still remains low and we forecast it to rise only moderately to 35% of GDP through 2019 owing to robust projected economic growth. We are revising our outlook on the long-term ratings on Rwanda to negative from stable, and affirming our ?B+/B? ratings.
