We expect that Qatar?s large stock of accumulated liquid assets should help it weather the impact of the regional conflict and the supply disruptions it has caused in the Strait of Hormuz. Owing to these disruptions, we forecast that Qatar?s economy will contract by 5% in real terms in 2026, while both fiscal and current account balances move into small deficits. Our base-case scenario assumes the U.S. and Iran will reach an agreement that eases the effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing meaningful trade flows to resume by the end of May, without further material damage to critical energy infrastructure. However, we expect any reopening to be fragile, with the risk of intermittent disruptions. A drop in LNG
