Qatar?s economic growth of about 4% in 2016-2019 will be sustained by its large infrastructure investment program, but the latter will contribute to a deterioration in fiscal and external balances exacerbated by the large fall in hydrocarbon prices since mid-2014. We expect the country's fiscal and external positions to shift to deficits from 2016 onward. Nonetheless, Qatar has built a large net asset position over many years that will help it weather the current lower hydrocarbon price environment. We are therefore affirming our 'AA/A-1+' sovereign credit ratings on Qatar. The stable outlook reflects our view that Qatar's economy will remain resilient, supported by solid macroeconomic fundamentals, although we anticipate continued institutional weaknesses and only a moderate increase in hydrocarbon prices
