We expect Poland's large, diversified, and open economy to expand an average of 3% over 2024-2027. The rapid increase in government debt through 2027 highlights increasing fiscal issues, although at 59% of GDP by 2027, the net general government debt burden remains manageable. We estimate EU funds--mostly grants--to average almost 3% of GDP per year from 2025-2027, but reforms will remain challenging against a complicated domestic political backdrop. We affirmed our 'A-/A-2' foreign currency and 'A/A-1' local currency ratings on Poland. The outlook remains stable. On Nov. 8, 2024, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'A-/A-2' long- and short-term foreign currency (FC) sovereign credit ratings and 'A/A-1' long- and short-term local currency sovereign credit ratings on Poland. The outlook is stable.
