Italian premium and luxury auto supplier Leather SpA (doing business as Pasubio) is facing weaker-than-expected volumes, which will strain the company's earnings and credit metrics in 2024 and 2025. Lower revenue in 2024 and limited earnings growth in 2025 will lead to S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage of about 6.4x in 2024-2025, compared with 6.6x in 2023 and which is above our expectations for the rating. Prolonged weakness of European auto production could restrict Pasubio's earnings expansion beyond 2025 such that the group will not reduce its leverage. However, we expect better free cash flow, with free operating cash flow (FOCF) to debt of 3%-4% in 2025 due to lower capital expenditure (capex), up from about 0% to 1% in 2024.