Higher global oil prices and rising production volumes, alongside a recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, are supporting Saudi Arabia's fiscal and GDP growth dynamics, as well as its already strong external metrics. We forecast that real GDP growth will rise to 5.8% this year, and average 2.7% in 2023-2025, a stronger trend than in the years running up to the pandemic. We expect the government to run a fiscal surplus of 3.3% of GDP this year, and an average surplus of 0.6% in 2022-2025. We therefore revised our outlook on Saudi Arabia to positive from stable, while affirming our 'A-/A-2' ratings. On March 25, 2022, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Saudi Arabia to positive from stable. At the
