...- Deteriorating consumer confidence and inflation are weighing on volumes and squeezing margins in the parcel segment. We now expect PostNL's adjusted EBITDA in 2022 to miss our previous forecast by a significant amount. It is unclear how and when a turnaround in parcel volumes may occur, casting a shadow over the path to recovery for the group's profitability from the forecast 2022 low. - We understand that PostNL will continue to use free operating cash flow (FOCF) to pay regular dividend distributions, as long as its debt leverage ratio--as defined by PostNL--stays below the 2.0x target. This weighs on its capacity to lower net debt. As a result, S&P Global Ratings-adjusted funds from operations (FFO) to debt will deteriorate; we predict that it will remain at the lower end of 45%-60% through 2024. - Therefore, we revised down our financial risk profile and lowered our long-term issuer credit ratings on PostNL and issue ratings on the company's senior unsecured debt to '###' from '###+'....
