Mexico's track record of cautious fiscal and monetary policies has contributed to limited government deficits and low inflation, as well as moderate external debt. Net general government debt is likely to rise toward 47%-48% of GDP in 2018-2019, from 45% of GDP in 2016, due to continued fiscal deficits and low GDP growth. We are revising the outlook on the long-term ratings on Mexico to negative from stable to reflect an at least one-in-three possibility of a downgrade over the next 24 months if either the government's debt or interest burden deteriorates beyond our current expectations, raising the vulnerability of Mexico's public finances to adverse shocks. We are affirming our 'BBB+/A-2' foreign currency and 'A/A-1' local currency sovereign credit ratings
