We expect Mattamy Group Corp.’s profitability to remain pressured due to ongoing macroeconomic challenges. We forecast its debt to EBITDA to remain well above 2x, with EBITDA margins between 12% and 13% for 2027 and 2028. Therefore, we lowered our issuer credit rating on Mattamy and our issue-level rating on its senior unsecured notes to'BB'from'BB+'. The recovery rating on the notes remains'3'. The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Mattamy will maintain S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA of 2.5x-3.5x, EBITDA interest coverage below 6x, and debt to capital below 30% over the next 12-18 months. The company’s recent operating performance reflects a period of contraction, as it navigates affordability challenges, pricing pressures, and weak demand.
