...- On March 17, 2020, S&P Global Ratings' economists said the world's biggest economy had fallen into recession. Based on data and news reported since then, we see the toll on U.S. GDP will be far more severe than we once thought--with the contraction starting in the first-quarter and worsening substantially in the second quarter. - U.S. social distancing guidelines will remain in place at least until April 30, extending the possibility for a prolonged travel downturn. - We are revising our assumption that a near total collapse in U.S. demand for hotel rooms may persist for months due to the extraordinary restrictions on travel and movement, combined with a severe contraction in the second quarter, with a moderate recovery beginning sometime midyear. - Compared to our previous base case, these revised assumptions may delay the moment Marriott International Inc. and its hotel system can begin to recover. They may also cause the company's leverage to spike higher and recover more slowly. -...
