Research Update: Grupo Bimbo S.A.B. de C.V. Outlook On 'BBB+' Rating Revised To Negative On Higher Leverage; Ratings Affirmed

We now expect global bakery and snacks company Grupo Bimbo S.A.B. de C.V. (GB) to maintain higher leverage with estimated S&P Global Ratings-adjusted net debt to EBITDA above 3x in 2025 before moving below 3x in 2026. This comes despite steady top-line and EBITDA growth in the past 12 months, with more aggressive capital deployment via capital expenditure (capex), dividends, share buybacks, and acquisitions, along with foreign exchange (FX) rate volatility, deviating leverage metrics. We expect the transformation project of U.S. operations will start reaping benefits in the next 12-24 months, which along with a sound performance in non-U.S. geographies, contribution from accretive acquisitions and slower capital deployment in 2026, should set a deleveraging path for the company. As a

...March 20, 2025 (Editor's note: This article was corrected on March 25, 2025, to align the figures in assumptions with the forecast summary table. S&P Global Ratings believes there is a high degree of unpredictability around policy implementation by the U.S. administration and possible responses--specifically with regard to tariffs--and the potential effect on economies, supply chains, and credit conditions around the world. As a result, our baseline forecasts carry a significant amount of uncertainty. As situations evolve, we will gauge the macro and credit materiality of potential and actual policy shifts and reassess our guidance accordingly [see our research here: spglobal.com/ratings].)...

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