We expect the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown measures will lead to a global economic recession in 2020. We see increased difficulty for Commerzbank to deliver on its essential multiyear restructuring program, and increased risks in the main markets where the bank operates. We also expect that the bank's capitalization could moderately weaken after taking into account increasing credit and market risk. We are therefore lowering our long-term issuer credit rating on Commerzbank to 'BBB+' from 'A-', and affirming our 'A-2' short-term rating. The negative outlook acknowledges substantial downside risks, under which the bank's complex restructuring process, asset quality, and risk-adjusted profitability could come under greater strain if an economic recovery is significantly delayed or weaker than expected. On April
