We are forecasting Miami-based cruise operator Carnival Corp.'s operating lease and port commitment adjusted leverage to remain around our 2.5x downgrade threshold through 2020. This translates to an increased likelihood that leverage may increase above the threshold if EBITDA modestly underperforms our forecast, a risk we believe is now heightened given the increased likelihood of a U.S. recession beginning in the next 12 months. We revised our outlook on Carnival to negative from stable. We affirmed all ratings, including our 'A-' issuer credit rating and 'A-2' short-term rating. The negative outlook reflects the increased possibility that operating lease and port commitment adjusted leverage under our forecast could rise above our 2.5x downgrade threshold for a prolonged period over the next
