We expect the Bulgarian government's measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 will push the country's economy into a recession in 2020, versus our previous forecast of continued growth. However, Bulgaria's strong fiscal and external balance sheets will help it absorb the shock before the economy recovers in 2021. Bulgaria still aims to join the EU's Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) and the Banking Union in the near term, which could gradually strengthen its monetary arrangements. We are therefore revising our outlook on Bulgaria to stable from positive and affirming our 'BBB/A-2' sovereign credit ratings. On May 29, 2020, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Bulgaria to stable from positive. At the same time, we affirmed our 'BBB/A-2' long-
