This report does not constitute a rating action. RIYADH (S&P Global Ratings) Nov. 10, 2026--We expect Saudi Arabia's economy to contract in 2026 and rebound from 2027 as oil export volumes recover. While banks, utilities, and telecommunications companies will remain resilient, sectors such as tourism, real estate, and mining could face escalating credit risks (see"How Will The Middle East War Affect Saudi Issuers? ,"published today). We project Saudi Arabia's real GDP will contract by 1.3% in 2026, driven by declining oil production and subdued non-oil growth. This will be followed by a sharp recovery of 8.0% in 2027."Our base case assumes disruptions to oil and gas flows via the Strait of Hormuz will continue into 2027,