Raiffeisen Bank International AG

The negative outlook reflects our view that RBI continues to face downside risks in the coming 12-24 months, due to geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges amid the war in Ukraine, as well as possible spillover effects into its main markets in CEE and SEE. We see heightened reputational, political, and financial tail risks arising from its outsized Russian operations persisting until it sufficiently de-risks its positions in Russia. We could lower our rating on RBI in the next 12-24 months if the group experiences material damage to its franchise or faces significant sanction allegations and regulatory penalties amid its operations in Russia and Belarus. Higher-than-expected loss of equity investments in these countries, particularly in Russia, could also lead us to lower

...We expect Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) will remain core to RBG's strategy and be supported under all foreseeable circumstances. Our rating on RBI reflects not only the creditworthiness of RBI itself but also the benefits to RBI of being part of a stronger, broader banking group, RBG, which we assess through consolidated data. The group's aggregate creditworthiness, including its cohesiveness, expectation of support from member banks if required, and our view that RBI (as RBG's central unit) will remain a core strategic member of the wider group for the foreseeable future are key for our ratings assessment. RBG's solid profits and high capital buffers provide a comfortable cushion against possible commercial, economic, and franchise impacts from operations in Russia. RBG's 2023 results show that the group managed to increase its stock of total equity by about 10% while maintaining its strong earnings generation capacity. Both act as a cushion against...

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