This report does not constitute a rating action. Overview Credit context and assumptions Base-case expectations A rebound in the economy will allow the government to refocus on fiscal sustainability efforts. Post-pandemic growth will lead to strengthening budgetary performance. --We expect economic growth will return to pre-pandemic levels in the outlook horizon, as vaccination rates increase and social distancing measures are lifted. -- Although operating deficits will fall as pandemic-related spending wanes and revenues increase, high after-capital deficits will persist with a larger capital program. --While the near-term focus is on supporting a recovery fueled by economic growth, we expect that the government will resume its cost management efforts once pandemic-related spending requirements subside. -- Bolstered by strengthening operating performance, we
