Province of Alberta

This report does not constitute a rating action. Overview Credit context and assumptions Base-case expectations --Relatively high oil prices will cushion the province from economic challenges in 2023. --Alberta produced strong operating and after-capital surpluses in 2021-2022, which we expect will continue in 2022-2023. --Following the election of a new party leader, the governing United Conservative Party will seek another term in the provincial election in May 2023. --With strong operating revenue growth in 2021-2023 and forecast for 2022-2023, the province?s debt burden will be lower than our budget-time expectations. --The province?s supportive relationship with the federal government will remain very predictable and well balanced. --We expect improving after-capital results will likely strengthen debt service coverage ratios. S&P Global Ratings?

...S&P Global Ratings' long-term issuer credit rating on the Province of Alberta is `A+'. With the recovery in oil prices, Alberta's budgetary performance has rebounded strongly in 2021-2022. We believe strengthening budgetary results could outperform our 2022 budget-time expectations for 2022-2023 (fiscal year ended March 31) despite increased economic challenges. Alberta's economy grew very strongly in 2021 as real GDP increased 4.8% from 2020, according to Statistics Canada. Nominal GDP jumped 26% over the same period. The province expects real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023, which is stronger than we expect in our national forecast of about 3% and 0%, respectively (see "Economic Outlook Canada Q1 2023: Economic Chills This Winter," published Nov. 28, 2022, on RatingsDirect). Furthermore, the province expects employment will rise by about 5% in 2022 as the unemployment rate declines to below 6%, which lags our forecast of 5.3% for the country....

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