The Russia-Ukraine military conflict will have sizable effects on Poland's economy and public finance. We have lowered our forecasts for real GDP growth for 2022 to 3.6% from 5.0% and increased the estimate for government fiscal deficits to 4% of GDP from about 3% previously. Despite uncertainty over the duration of the conflict and the ultimate fallout it will cause for Poland, we think the country's flexible policy settings, strong external and public balance sheets, and ample EU transfers will help mitigate this shock. We affirmed our 'A-/A-2' foreign currency and 'A/A-1' local currency ratings on Poland. The outlook is stable. On April 1, 2022, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'A-/A-2' long- and short-term foreign currency ratings and 'A/A-1' local
