Dominant market position in small and midsize enterprise (SME) lending in Australia and New Zealand. Capitalization and earnings support credit profile amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Highly likely to receive timely financial support from the Australian government. Material dependence on domestic and offshore wholesale borrowings. COVID-19 outbreak may disrupt business activities for SMEs and weigh on profitability. The negative outlook on National Australia Bank (NAB) mirrors that on the Australian sovereign (AAA/Negative/A-1+), and reflects a one-in-three likelihood that we will lower our long-term rating on the bank in the next two years. In our base case, we expect that, despite a significant fall in interest and fee income, NAB's earnings in the next two years will remain sufficient to absorb the
