We could lower or raise our Turkey national scale rating on Milli Re if we took a similar action on the parent or the sovereign. We expect the Turkish economy to contract by 0.5% this year, although there are major uncertainties surrounding this forecast. Following extreme currency volatility in 2018, inflation is expected to remain high in 2019, at about 16%. There are limited checks and balances between government bodies, raising questions about Turkey's ability to address the difficult environment in which its financial sector operates, and the broader economy. Incorporated in Istanbul, Milli Re is the only national reinsurer that operates in the Turkish insurance market. Its parent, Türkiye Is Bankasi AS (Isbank), set it up in 1929 to