MTN Group Ltd.

The stable outlook reflects our view that the blended sovereign rating of 'B', above which MTN can be rated by two notches, is unlikely to be lowered in the next 12 months. This is given the stable outlooks on the sovereign ratings on both Nigeria and on South Africa. MTN's creditworthiness is sensitive to that of both South Africa and Nigeria. We could revise the outlook on MTN to negative from stable in the event of weaker operating performance that reduces MTN's liquidity, limiting its ability to withstand our sovereign stress scenario for a 12-month period, such that we can no longer rate the company two notches higher than the blended sovereign rating. We could also downgrade MTN if adjusted

...Revenue will likely see a positive trend in 2020 before moderating in 2021. MTN Group's consolidated South African rand (ZAR) revenue is likely to rise by 8%-10% in 2020, due to solid subscriber and data revenue growth and improving operating performance in key countries (specifically Nigeria and Ghana) and supported by rand weakness. In constant currency terms, the growth is expected to be in the 5%-7% range. The rand is expected to weaken by almost 15% in 2020 relative to the U.S. dollar, strengthening slightly in 2021, while the Nigerian naira (NGN) is likely to appreciate by around 6%-7% relative to the rand in 2020, before weakening in 2021. Although the use of IP-based services supports data revenue growth, it also puts increasing pressure on traditional voice and SMS revenue. We however expect the resilience in voice to continue to underpin the overall group revenue, even though the mix of data and voice revenue continues to evolve. In our view, low smart phone penetration and poor...

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