We expect tariff decisions will arrive no earlier than December 2020. In our base case, we have incorporated the assumption that tariff uplifts will be capped by the inflation rate minus 1%-2%. We continue to view the tariff regime as politicized and less predictable than European best practices. This view is underpinned by limited public discussions of the new tariffs, exposure of Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Co. (KEGOC) to volume risk and a track record of state interventions (as evidenced by the tariff freeze in 2019). KEGOC is planning a massive asset rehabilitation program, which will drive up annual capex to Kazakh tenge (KZT)40 billion-KZT45 billion in the next two years, from KZT25 billion. At the same time, previous favorable
