This report does not constitute a rating action. Overview Institutional and economic profile Flexibility and performance profile Political volatility limits policy predictability. Oil exports will keep the current account in a surplus, while large domestic spending plans will widen fiscal deficits. --Recent attacks by Iraqi Shia militias on U.S. military bases have heightened regional tensions and fractured U.S.-Iraqi bilateral relations since the onset of the Israel-Gaza conflict. --We expect only partial implementation of the multi-year expansionary budget due to capacity constraints tied to scaling-up non-oil capital expenditure. -- OPEC+ production cuts, the closure of the Northern Iraq-Ceyhan pipeline, and disruptions in the Red Sea continue to hurt oil exports. --A sizable current account surplus over the forecast horizon will add
