Overview Key strengths Key risks Largest dairy producer in Asia with well-recognized brands in China. High geographical concentration relative to global peers'. Sizable internal sources of raw milk. Exposure to volatile raw-milk prices and potential food-safety issues. Minimal leverage, buttressed by financial discipline and solid free cash flow. We forecast the segment will expand 6% in 2023, following a 2% decline in 2022; Yili?s growth will be in line with the industry. The growth will likely come from increased consumption and fewer logistics-related disruptions post the pandemic. In our base case, we assume a steady 4%-5% annual EBITDA growth for 2023-2024. That said, lower discretionary spending than we expect could slow penetration for items with higher average selling price (ASP),
