Infopro Digital Group B.V.

The stable outlook reflects our view that, in the next 12 months, Infopro Digital will generate modest organic revenue and EBITDA growth, and maintain adequate liquidity, while generating meaningful and sustainable FOCF of over €40 million. We could lower the ratings if the group's leverage increased, for example due to further debt-funded acquisitions or material operating weakness, such that funds from operations (FFO) cash interest coverage declined toward 2x, or if there was a material deterioration in FOCF from our current forecast of greater than €40 million in 2019. Earnings weakness could come from a decline in the demand for marketing services, print, or trade shows, or increased restructuring and integration charges. A material weakening in liquidity, which we currently

...Infopro Digital Group B.V.'s (Infopro Digital's) acquisitive strategy supports rapid expansion and diversification away from France. S&P Global Ratings forecasts Infopro Digital, with revenue of 430 million in 2018, will continue to expand through bolt-on acquisitions and by extending its geographical footprint, particularly in Germany and in the U.K. However, we believe that such acquisitions may be less material than previous transactions. In our view, Infopro Digital's earnings quality has improved since 2016 thanks to its rapid inorganic growth that has increased scale and improved geographic diversification. The group continues to gradually diversity away from France, with French revenue declining to 64% of total revenue in 2018, from 88% in 2016 (see chart 1). We expect this trend will continue, with revenue from France decreasing toward 50% in the medium term. Nevertheless, the group remains significantly smaller and less diversified than international peers such as Informa PLC,...

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