Deutsche Bank AG

The stable outlook reflects our view that Deutsche Bank is set to maintain its improved strategic focus and execution. We expect that 2022 earnings will strengthen meaningfully, which would narrow the performance gap to peers and improve its resilience to unexpected stresses. We also assume the maintenance of sound capital and liquidity buffers, in line with management guidance. Deutsche Bank has manageable direct exposure to Russia, and we expect it will navigate effectively the second-order effects of the Russia/Ukraine conflict. We could consider raising the ratings over our two-year outlook horizon if Deutsche Bank continues to deliver on its strategy and positions its creditworthiness closer to peers with 'bbb+' group stand-alone credit profiles (SACPs) or 'A' issuer credit ratings (ICRs).

...Deutsche Bank's transformation program is delivering tangible benefits. We think Deutsche Bank is becoming a more focused, more profitable, and better-controlled group as it completes the repositioning of its business model and balance sheet. This has positive implications for franchise stability, management credibility, and the predictability and sustainability of earnings. The transformation program aims to deliver in 2022. Deutsche Bank targets an 8% return on tangible equity (RoTE) and 70% cost-to-income ratio (CIR) in 2022. Outcomes in line with or close to these levels would narrow the gap to peers and lay the foundations for further progress in the bank's franchise and earnings. Deutsche Bank aims to deliver stronger revenue growth and continued efficiency savings in 2023-2025 and raise the RoTE above 10%....

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