...FRANKFURT (S&P Global Ratings) Nov. 23, 2023--S&P Global Ratings believes Romania's (###-/Stable/A-3) proposed pension law could derail government plans for medium-term fiscal consolidation and potentially undermine our baseline fiscal and rating assumptions. We estimate that without mitigating measures, general government deficits would remain above 5% of GDP on average over the next few years, putting debt as a share of GDP on a firm upward path. That said, the track record of similar policy initiatives suggests the law's parameters could be softened, containing the fiscal fallout. In our view, Romania's proposed pension law could imply a significant deviation from the current fiscal consolidation path for a country facing some of the most challenging demographics of all rated sovereigns. We estimate that the current version of the law, without offsetting measures, would push Romania's general government deficit to 5.3% of GDP on average over 2024-2026 compared with our baseline expectations...
