The stable outlook reflects our assumption that although the conflict in Ukraine will take a toll on the growth prospects of most economies where BBVA operates, the impact will be manageable and short-lived. Turkey could suffer the most, which means BBVA's results might strengthen slower than we initially thought. That said, the benefits of the cost restructuring completed in Spain and likely maintenance of solid returns in Mexico give BBVA some room to accommodate potentially lower earnings from Turkey. Equally, we expect the bank to maintain solid capitalization, with a RAC ratio above 8.5% over the outlook horizon, following the completion of the ongoing €3.5 billion share buyback program and the voluntary tender offer to minorities of its Turkish subsidiary.
