The stable outlook on BWXT reflects our expectations that credit ratios will improve modestly as growing earnings are partially offset by the company's use of excess cash to fund higher capex. We expect FFO to debt of 35%-40% in 2019 and 38%-43% in 2020 and debt to EBITDA of 1.8x-2.2x in 2019 and 1.6x-2.0x in 2020. We could lower the rating if FFO to debt declines below 30% for a prolonged period. This could be the result of higher-than-expected costs or investment to support growth initiatives, operational problems, a significant decline in funding for nuclear warships, lower demand in non-defense markets, or large debt-financed acquisitions or share repurchases. We could raise the rating if FFO to debt increases above 45%
