Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd.

The stable outlook reflects our expectations that the group will continue to benefit from its competitive position in the global specialty and reinsurance market. As a result, underwriting performance will continue to improve to below a 95% combined ratio in the next two years. We anticipate that Aspen's capital adequacy will exceed our 99.99% confidence level over the next two years. Furthermore, we expect Aspen's financial leverage and fixed charge coverage will be in line with our expectations for each year during 2024-2026. We could consider lowering the ratings over the next 12 months if: Aspen's underwriting performance is not maintained as expected, signaling greater competitive pressure than we anticipate. Aspen's capital adequacy fell sustainably below our 99.99% confidence level

...S&P Global Ratings expects Aspen Group to maintain its competitive position as a global specialist insurance and reinsurance group. We forecast Aspen's net combined ratio (including corporate and nonoperating expenses) to be around 93%-94% at year-end 2024 and in 2025 supported by a more profitable book of business, lower exposure to catastrophe risk, and a reduced expenses base. We also expect Aspen to generate steady fee income from managing third-party capital over the next two years, which would further offset acquisition costs. We expect capital will remain above the 99.99% level, as per our risk-based capital model. Aspen's ability to maintain capital above this requirement for extreme stress is a key rating strength. With expected lower earnings volatility from the underwriting business and higher investment returns due to higher-for-longer interest rates, Aspen will be able to maintain robust capital levels. We expect Aspen Group's Bermuda Solvency Capital Requirement ratio will...

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