Argentina's post-pandemic economy will likely remain under pressure as national midterm elections later this year constrain policy initiatives. A history of economic instability and sharp changes in economic policies underpin the low credibility and predictability of Argentina's governing institutions. The successful commercial debt restructuring in 2020 afforded significant cash flow relief over the coming decade, and the focus is now on negotiating with official creditors and a new IMF program. We expect a 6% recovery in real GDP this year but subpar growth thereafter amid ongoing economic imbalances and weaknesses. Despite commercial debt relief, significant external, fiscal, and monetary policy challenges remain. A still-weak fiscal profile reflects high financing needs with deficits that are expected to improve only slowly amid
