Antigua Bidco Ltd

We assume a working capital outflow of about £40 million-£45 million in 2021, caused by higher inventory and changes in payment conditions of transferred products and limited capex. Therefore, we project that the company should have at least £20 million of cash on balance sheet in 2020, about £35 million in 2021, and £60 million at the end of 2022. We do not deduct any cash, because of financial-sponsor ownership and our assumption that the company will likely utilize the cash to boost further growth. Over the next 12 months, we assume that Atnahs will concentrate on integrating newly acquired assets into its existing portfolio, and abstain from large acquisitions. However, we consider that post fiscal 2021, the company should

...Due to COVID-19, we see pressure on U.K.-based pharmaceuticals company Atnahs Pharma's top line growth in 2020, especially in emerging markets. Atnahs experienced some volatility in portfolio performance toward the end of fiscal 2020 (year ending March 31) due to the COVID-19 outbreak, caused by lower demand for certain products due to delayed doctor visits and postponed elective surgeries as well due to supply chain and distribution disruptions, such as deferred shipments for export markets. We assume that volumes will pick up in the second half of 2020, but that recovery in emerging markets could take longer, depending on the evolution of COVID-19 in these countries. There is also a risk of delays in the transfer of the recently acquired products, given that regulatory authorities are slower in processing approvals and registrations due to the current health crisis. Still, under our base case, we assume that the company will achieve sales of about ú225 million in 2021, from about ú145...

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