American Airlines Group Inc.

Overview Key strengths Key risks Among the largest U.S. and global airlines based on annual passengers and revenue, with an extensive route network. Operates in the cyclical, price-competitive, and capital-intensive airline industry. Moderate capital expenditures (capex) over the next couple of years should support positive free cash flow available for debt repayment. Significant debt and higher leverage relative to its closest U.S. peers, with material maturities in 2025 and 2026. Material higher-growth premium, loyalty program and international sales. High credit measure sensitivity to weaker-than-expected demand that reduces average fares and inflationary pressure. The company, along with certain other U.S. airlines, recently revised earnings guidance lower for Q1 2025. Macroeconomic uncertainty was commonly cited as a key reason for lower-than-expected consumer

...Downside risk to our estimates for American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) have increased, linked to reports of weaker-than-expected domestic demand. The company, along with certain other U.S. airlines, recently revised earnings guidance lower for Q1 2025. Macroeconomic uncertainty was commonly cited as a key reason for lower-than-expected consumer confidence and bookings over the past month or so--a notable contrast to what we considered an exuberant tone across the industry for much of the second half of last year....

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