The stable outlook on Russia-based AlfaStrakhovanie reflects our expectation that in the next 12 months the company will be able to sustain its competitive position while preserving its sound underwriting results. We still expect that capital adequacy will weigh on the company's financial risk profile due to small capital buffers compared to peers. We could take a negative rating action on AlfaStrakhovanie in the next 12 months if: Capital weakened for a prolonged period below the 'BBB' level according to our capital model, squeezed either by weaker-than-expected operating performance or investment losses, considerably higher dividend payouts; or The company experiences more losses in its portfolio than we currently project; or We view that the company's risk exposure as heightening due
