The negative outlook reflects the risk that an inadequate recovery in the hotel and lodging sector, slow or insufficient mitigating measures by Accor, or execution risk around asset disposals could result in the company not showing clear operating and financial progress in 2021. This could result in Accor's inability to restore its earnings, cash flow, and credit metrics in line with a 'BB+' rating over the next 24 months. Our base-case scenario forecasts the group's adjusted leverage staying well above 5x in 2020 and 2021, before decreasing below 5x by 2022. We forecast negative earnings and cash flow in 2020, modestly positive free operating cash flow (FOCF) in 2021, and FOCF to debt comfortably above 15% in 2022. We could