2025 Global Outlook For Heavy-Duty Trucks Isn't Rosy

Despite strong deliveries in 2023, order books have gradually normalized in 2024. Truck demand in European countries has cooled during the year due to slower economic activity, softening freight rates, and the high cost of capital, which is deferring fleet replacement decisions. Overall, we project a decline in deliveries of 10%-15% in the EU, Norway, Switzerland, and the U.K. at year-end 2024, compared with 2023, as truck capacity rebalances. In 2025, we expect that the European truck market will experience another decline in units sold of up to 5%, affected by weaker order intakes during 2024. Amid rated truck manufacturers, AB Volvo's net order intake for heavy and medium-duty trucks in Europe declined by 6% in the first nine months

...- We forecast that global sales of heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) will increase globally by low single digits to about 1.95 million units in 2025, up from 1.93 million units expected for 2024. The market continues to normalize in Europe, with a declining trend, and recovers moderately in North America and Asia-Pacific (APAC). - Anticipated tightening capacity, a rebound in freight rates, and aging fleets will likely spur new truck purchases in the second half of 2025 globally, albeit delivery trends will differ across regions. - Pre-buying activity ahead of the transition to stricter emission regulations could increase demand in the truck market, with potential positive momentum in the U.S. in 2026 and in Europe in 2027. - While electric truck sales continue to represent a small share of total deliveries, we expect the transition toward zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) will accelerate over 2025-2030, supported by advances in battery economics and charging infrastructures. - Supply chain issues and...

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