Moody's Ratings affirms Saskatchewan's Aa1 ratings with a stable outlook

Province of Saskatchewan (Canada): Update following rating affirmation - Credit Opinion – 2024/05/14 – US$ 250.00 – ...The credit profile of the Province of Saskatchewan (Aa1 stable) reflects low levels of debt relative to peers despite debt needed to support a large capital program, high debt affordability, and strong governance and treasury management, including a consistent build-up of liquidity in recent years. Despite a projected return to short-lived deficits, Saskatchewan will retain one of the strongest fiscal profiles among Canadian provinces. The rating also reflects exposure to increased economic volatility due to important sectors impacted by weather events and global prices for resources which creates higher uncertainty in budgeting. The province also faces contingent liability risk from provincial utilities and pensions....

Province of Saskatchewan (Canada): 2024 budget projects a return to short-lived deficits, but credit fundamentals remain strong - Issuer Comment – 2024/03/21 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 20 March, the Province of Saskatchewan (Aa1 stable) released its 2024-25 budget for the fiscal year ending 31 March 2025. The budget projects a return to short-lived deficits (see Exhibit 1) because the pressure from a more rapid rise in social spending and weakness in resource revenue is only partly offset by rising tax revenue and federal transfers. The return to deficits and a significant emphasis on bolstering capital spending, will result in modestly higher debt levels for the next three years than we previously projected (see Exhibit 2). However, these projections do not fundamentally alter the credit strength of the province, which will retain one of the strongest fiscal and debt profiles among Canadian provincial peers....

Province of Saskatchewan (Canada): Update to credit analysis - Credit Opinion – 2023/07/31 – US$ 250.00 – ...The credit profile of the Province of Saskatchewan (Aa1 stable) incorporates our projection of continued surpluses following a period of weaker fiscal results, benefitting from a gradual economic recovery and strong resource prices. The province maintains high levels of liquidity along with a debt burden which is the lowest among provincial peers, supporting strong debt affordability and low refinancing risk. A stable and well-developed institutional framework and significant federal transfers provide a buffer against health and social expenditure challenges. The rating also reflects exposure to economic factors including weather events and resource price volatility which creates some uncertainty in revenues and budgeting. The province also faces contingent liability risk from provincial utilities and pensions....

Province of Saskatchewan (Canada): Saskatchewan is on track to have the lowest debt burden among provinces by 2023-24 - Issuer Comment – 2023/03/23 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 22 March, the Province of Saskatchewan (Aa1 stable) released its 2023-24 budget that projects a surplus of CAD1.0 billion (5.2% of revenue) for 2023-24 based on the strength of an ongoing economic recovery which supports higher tax revenue and strong prices of resources, followed by continued surpluses averaging 1.4% of revenue through 2026-27 (Exhibit 1). This follows an estimated surplus of CAD1.1 billion (5.7% of revenue) for the fiscal year ending 31 March 2023, a marked improvement from an initial budget deficit estimate of CAD463 million (2.7% of revenue). The positive fiscal outcome projections will allow the province to reduce its debt level which will decrease the debt burden and limit the increase in its interest burden despite high interest rates (Exhibit 2) and build liquidity including sinking funds, which is credit positive. Key risks will remain with high levels of operating and capital spending which may be difficult to reduce if revenues are lower than planned. Additionally,...

Province of Saskatchewan (Canada): Update to credit analysis - Credit Opinion – 2022/07/14 – US$ 250.00 – ...The credit profile of the Province of Saskatchewan (Aa1 stable) incorporates strong debt affordability and low refinancing risk, as well as relatively high levels of liquidity compared to provincial peers that provide strong coverage of net debt and expenses. A stable and well-developed institutional framework and significant pandemic-related and ongoing federal transfers provide a buffer against fiscal challenges. The rating also reflects inflationary pressures and continued deficits which challenge the fiscal profile despite improvements in resource revenues, and elevated capital expenditures leading to rising debt levels....

Province of Saskatchewan (Canada): Improved fiscal position drives slow, steady path to balance - Issuer Comment – 2022/03/24 – US$ 200.00 – ...The projection for 2027F is Moody's forecast based on a straight-line assumption of a return to balance. Sources: Saskatchewan public accounts and budget and Moody's Investors Service...