Government of Nigeria B2 stable: Annual credit analysis

Moody's downgrades Nigeria's rating to B3 from B2 and places it on review for downgrade - Rating Action – 2022/10/21 – US$ 180.00 – ...Rating Action: Moody's downgrades Nigeria's rating to B3 from B2 and places it on review for downgrade...

Government of Nigeria: Nigerias plan to lengthen debt maturity may amount to a default under Moody's definition - Issuer Comment – 2022/10/17 – US$ 200.00 – ...Excludes government debt owed to the central bank Sources: Ministry of Finance of Nigeria and Moody's Investors Service...

Government of Nigeria: FAQ on Nigeria's fiscal and external position - Issuer In-Depth – 2022/09/07 – US$ 750.00 – ...As an oil exporter, Nigeria (B2 stable) is set to benefit from higher oil prices this year. However, its economic and financial performance have gradually deteriorated since the beginning of the year, as illustrated by subdued growth (+3.5% year-on-year over the first half of 2022), eroding foreign exchange reserves and downward pressure on the currency. In this report, we answer frequently asked questions about these developments. + Are higher oil prices exerting positive or negative pressure on the government's finances? So far, higher oil prices remain positive for Nigeria's fiscal accounts because revenue derived from oil production (2% of GDP in 2021) still outweighs the growing cost of the country's oil subsidy program (1% of GDP in 2021). However, constraints on oil production on the one hand and faster-growing oil consumption ¡ incentivized by the oil subsidy and inherent to the country's economic development ¡ on the other, have meant that the positive impact of higher oil prices...

Government of Nigeria B2 Stable: Update following change to forecasts - Credit Opinion – 2022/04/26 – US$ 250.00 – ...Nigeria's credit profile is constrained by fiscal and external reliance on the hydrocarbon sector, the government's small revenue base, a very weak institutional and governance framework and a fractious political landscape. Credit strengths include the country's large and diversified economy (hydrocarbons only represent 10% of GDP), supported by strong growth potential in domestic demand and deepening domestic capital markets....

Government of Nigeria: Decision to postpone removal of oil subsidies is credit negative - Issuer Comment – 2022/01/28 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 25 January, Nigeria's (B2 stable) Petroleum Minister Timipre Sylva announced that the government would postpone the removal of oil subsidies on imported fuel. The postponement is credit negative because the costly oil subsidies have historically been a key driver of Nigeria's significant fiscal deficits and accelerated deterioration in its public finances. The policy reversal also illustrates Nigeria's weak institutions and limited capacity to implement challenging reforms. The elimination of the oil subsidies has been envisaged for more than a decade by successive Nigerian administrations. This time, to further guarantee its implementation, the reform was put into law as a key provision of the long-awaited Petroleum Industry Bill, which was signed into law in August 2021. The government will therefore have to amend the law to reflect its decision to delay the removal of oil subsidies, and will have to propose a supplementary budget law that provides for the oil subsidies beyond June...

Government of Nigeria B2 Stable: Update following rating affirmation, outlook changed to stable - Credit Opinion – 2021/11/29 – US$ 250.00 – ...Nigeria's credit profile is constrained by fiscal and external reliance on the hydrocarbon sector, an underdeveloped revenue base, a very weak level of institutions and governance strength, and a fractious political landscape. Credit strengths include the country's large and diversified economy (the oil and gas sector represents less than 10% of GDP), supported by strong domestic demand in the medium term. Domestic capital markets are also increasingly deep and diversified....

Moody's changes Nigeria's outlook to stable, affirms B2 ratings - Rating Action – 2021/11/29 – US$ 180.00 – entity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their...

Government of Nigeria : New Petroleum Industry Bill finally addresses uncertainties that hindered the development of the oil and gas sector - Issuer Comment – 2021/07/07 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 1 July, Nigeria's (B2 negative) Parliament passed the long-awaited Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) after 13 years of negotiations since it was first introduced. The two different versions of the bill approved by the lower and upper houses will need to be harmonised before they are submitted to President Muhammadu Buhari for approval. However, we expect the PIB, to become law this year given the strong alignment between the legislature and executive at present, and despite pushback from a variety of interests. The delays in the bill's passage and absence of transparent regulatory environment has hindered the sector's development to date. The authorities therefore aim to promote a more transparent operating environment, a comprehensive fiscal framework, and increase their foreign-currency earnings through the new bill. The PIB will remove uncertainties that, over more than a decade, have resulted in very significant lost and deferred investments in the Nigerian oil and gas sector. The PIB...

Government of Nigeria B2 Negative: Regular update - Credit Opinion – 2021/05/19 – US$ 250.00 – ...Nigeria's credit profile is supported by the country's substantial oil and gas assets. Although the government is highly dependent on hydrocarbon revenues, which are prone to oil price volatility as in the recent period, the oil and gas sector represents less than 10% of GDP, and the economy is the largest in Africa. The credit profile is constrained by an underdeveloped revenue base, a very weak level of institutions and governance strength, and a fractious political landscape. A sharply rising debt burden, increasing debt affordability constraints, and persisting external vulnerabilities, which are exacerbated by the coronavirus outbreak, inform the negative outlook....

Government of Nigeria B2 Negative: Update following assignment of ESG credit impact scores - Credit Opinion – 2021/02/05 – US$ 250.00 – ...Nigeria's credit profile is supported by the country's substantial oil and gas assets. Although the government is highly dependent on hydrocarbon revenues, which are prone to oil price volatility as in the recent period, the oil and gas sector represents less than 10% of GDP, and the economy is the largest in Africa. The credit profile is constrained by an underdeveloped revenue base, a very weak level of institutions and governance strength, and a fractious political landscape. A sharply rising debt burden, increasing debt affordability constraints, and growing external vulnerabilities, which are exacerbated by the coronavirus outbreak, inform the negative outlook....