...53 Months and Counting The year-over-year change in TTM RevPAR has been positive for 53 sequential months during this U.S. lodging upcycle through January 2015, according to Fitch Ratings. This represents less than half of the duration of the 112-month recovery that began in the early 1990s. And although closer in duration to the 65-month recovery that started in the early 2000s, Fitch expects further RevPAR gains over the next 1¡3 years based on its review of key lodging cycle indicators. Few Causes for Concern Most lodging demand barometers -- GDP, unemployment, interest rates, consumer confidence, and travel and tourism -- are trending positively and are above their recent averages. Traditional early warning signals of an impending RevPAR decline, such as the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, hotel occupancies and hotel REIT share prices, suggest an industry downturn during the next one to three years is unlikely. Sharply lower oil prices should boost lodging demand -- particularly...
