...Credit Inflection Point Nearing: Fitch Ratings expects credit card losses and delinquencies to rise modestly from the historically low levels observed through the first nine months of 2015. Fitch expects continued loan growth and portfolio seasoning, as well as moderately loosening underwriting standards, to contribute to normalizing credit performance over an extended period. Correlation to Short-Term Unemployment: Credit card asset quality trends continue to be more highly correlated with unemployment insurance weekly claims data than the overall unemployment rate. Weekly unemployment claims have continued to decline. That said, the improvements in weekly unemployment claims have continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace, suggesting that an inflection point in asset quality may be nearing. Consumer Spending Slowing: Purchase volumes were up 6.4% in 3Q15, on average, for the top seven general-purpose card issuers, compared with 8.6% growth in 3Q14. Lower gas prices contributed to the...
