...The US-Iran war poses a substantial challenge to a growth model that has underpinned the diversification of the UAE's economy. Fitch Ratings sees structural strengths that will support the resilience of the non-oil economy. However, a persistent period of regional insecurity will call into question logistical advantages and perceptions of the country as a commercial and financial centre and tourism destination. Under our baseline, the non-oil economy will contract by 3.7% in real terms in 2026 and then grow by 6.1% in 2027 and 4.3% in 2028. This incorporates a fall in population of 1% in 2026, and then growth of 2% in 2027 and 3% in 2028. These are well below the 2022-2025 average numbers for non-oil GDP and population growth. But the non-oil economy will still be 2.2% larger in 2027 than in 2025....
