...Liquidity Key Concern: Fitch Ratings is treating "hard" trade sanctions as an outlier scenario at this time, given the likely high cost to Europe, and to a lesser extent, the US. We therefore see the most likely negative scenario for Russian corporates being market-led rationing of international credit to the sector ¡ both bank and bond. While not our core assumption, detailed liquidity analysis on a company-by-company basis allows us to form a view on this risk. Profiles Typically Robust: All but six of the Russian companies examined are well placed to withstand a closed refinancing market for the rest of 2014. In 2015 a further fifteen will need to refinance. The most notable is JSC SIBUR Holding, a regular international borrower, which was in the process of negotiating a refinancing of its bank lines as the crisis started. Given SIBURs standing in the Russian economy we would expect it to retain access to the Russian bank market, borne out in early April by its closure of a RUB27bn loan...
