...Recovery in 2017: The gap between oil supply and demand appears to have peaked at around 3 million barrels per day (mmb/d) in Q215, but the market appears unlikely to balance until 2H16 at the earliest. From this point it will still have to digest elevated oil stock levels. Fitch Ratings has therefore effectively pushed back the slow recovery we had assumed by one year and now include a modest price recovery only in 2017. Long-Term Brent Down: Fitch Ratings expects the combination of upstream efficiencies and cost deflation in the oilfield services sector to push marginal costs lower across the globe over the next few years. We believe some of this will stick in the long term and have reduced our long-term Brent price to USD75 from USD80. We reflected efficiency gains in US shale oil in our mid-year update so leave our long-term assumption unchanged at WTI of USD70. Supply Response in 2016: US shale supply has fallen, after a few delays, as some producers find that even after cost savings...
