...Spending Stable, Challenges Remain: Fitch Ratings expects U.S. retail sales -- excluding auto and gasoline -- to grow 3%¡4% in 2019, below the 5.0% expected in 2018. The challenge of evolving consumer shopping patterns remains, with traditional bricks-and-mortar share transitioning to the online and discount channels and service providers. Keys to retailers' success remain a strong omnichannel business model strategy and the cash flow necessary to implement associated upgrades to consumer-facing websites, supply chain infrastructure, store remodels and service offerings. Online Share Gains Continue: Fitch estimates e-commerce grew 20% in 2018 to over $525 billion, or 15% of retail sales (excluding auto and gasoline). Online penetration would be closer to 30%, excluding low-penetration categories, such as grocery. By 2020, online is expected to reach the mid-30% range by 2020 and account for virtually all retail sales growth. Fitch believes online growth will increasingly be supported by...
