...Improved Macro, but Challenges Remain: Fitch Ratings expects overall U.S. retail sales (excluding auto) to grow at 3%¡4% in 2016, in line with or modestly better than the 3% growth projected for 2015. While the economic environment is expected to remain fairly stable, in-store sales are expected to remain muted at 1.5%¡2.0% due to reduced store traffic, given increased online penetration, continued spending shift to consumer services, and moderate replenishment needs across certain categories (e.g. apparel). Online Share Gains to Continue: Fitch expects e-commerce to grow in the low teens in 2016 to well over $300 billion, or 15% of total retail sales, and account for 50% of total retail spending growth. Online spending growth will likely remain strong in general merchandise, apparel, consumer electronics, toys and office supplies, while more restrained in categories such as grocery, home improvement and auto parts. Comparable store sales (comps) growth at department stores and brick-and-mortar...
