...Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices rose to a record of more than USD1,900 a tonne (t) in early March 2022, and averaged around USD1,450/t to date. This is significantly higher than the level of around USD1,070/t in 2021 and more than double the 10-year average price of roughly USD700/t. The price surge is driven by a weaker outlook for the supply of substitute vegetable oils due to uncertainty over sunflower seed oil from Ukraine and Russia, the impact of a drought on South American soybeans and Indonesia's steps to curb palm oil exports. Fitch Ratings expects a gradual decline in prices on higher output, and assume an average benchmark price of USD1,000/t in 2022, USD700/t in 2023 and USD600/t thereafter. However, a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war may keep prices elevated in 2022-2023....
