...Back to Stable: Saudi Arabia's Outlook revision to Stable reflects Fitch Ratings' expectations for key sovereign balance-sheet metrics to deteriorate less than Fitch had expected in the previous review, due to significantly higher oil prices and continued government commitment to fiscal consolidation. We continue to forecast government debt/GDP to rise and sovereign net foreign assets (SNFA) to decline over the medium term, but these metrics will remain considerably stronger than the 'A' median. Gradual Structural Fiscal Consolidation: The government budget will remain highly sensitive to oil prices and production, but reforms are improving the underlying fiscal stance. Fitch forecasts an improvement in the non-oil primary deficit (NOPD/GDP), a measure of the underlying fiscal stance, to -24% in 2023 from -34% in 2020 (2015: -43%). Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven oil price would be USD64/bbl. Contained Fiscal Deterioration: We forecast government debt to reach 35% of GDP by end- 2023 (forecast...
