...Refining, Gas Prices Temporarily Cushion EMEA Oil Majors The first half of the year was stressful for the industry, with Brent averaging USD58/bbl, against USD109 a year ago. This has resulted in much lower profits and cash flow from operations, though these were supported by more stable gas prices, a higher share of "profit oil"' under PSAs, and high (we believe, temporarily) refining margins. Most majors, excluding Shell, also reported a growth in production over 1H14. We expect capex flexibility, cost deflation and to a certain extent disposals to alleviate the pain of depressed oil in future. What to Watch FFO Down 34%: The EBITDA of the European majors decreased by 36% yoy on average in 1H15 and funds from operations fell by 34%. This compares well to a 47% slump in Brent compared with 1H14. Based on these metrics, Total and BP were top performers in 1H15, while BG and Eni showed the worst results (see the middle chart on the right). The main reasons were BG's pure upstream business...
