...USD80 not USD60: Fitch Ratings has revised its price deck for 2015 to USD 80 per barrel of Brent from USD97.50. This is considerably above current market prices, which have continued their rapid slide to below USD60. We believe that the price will adjust to the marginal cost of supply during the course of 2015 as investment is curtailed. If It Is Lower: We do however regularly forecast companies' ability to cope with further stresses, down to USD55/bbl. We will comment further on this in early 2015 but for the moment see the February 2014 report Stress Testing Western European Oil and Gas Companies. Negative Outlooks Pressured: Fitch currently has three large upstream-focused oil and gas groups on Negative Outlook. BG Energy Holdings Ltd (A-) and Total SA (AA) are both expected to see increases in production in 2015 and 2016 as long-term investment projects come on stream ¡ the Negative Outlooks reflect associated execution risk. Success should allow them to substantially cut capex. For...
